Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $32,813$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(3.27 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,277$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(0.000825 \times 10^{0.055t}\) (doubling rate \(5.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,163.0}{1 + 10^{-0.958 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,163.0\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,148$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $291,172$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(3.23 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{355,318.8}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 105.6)}}\) (asimptote \(355,318.8\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $15,700$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.92 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,818.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 114.1)}}\) (asimptote \(19,818.2\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,259$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $110,032$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(418 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{138,041.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 124.5)}}\) (asimptote \(138,041.1\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,362$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(13.5 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,020.2}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 120.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,020.2\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $30,453$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $63,773$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(2.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{64,671.5}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 106.7)}}\) (asimptote \(64,671.5\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $433$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(52.9 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{409.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(409.8\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,967$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $39,131$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,340.0}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 121.1)}}\) (asimptote \(47,340.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $140$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(2.54 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{163.7}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 106.9)}}\) (asimptote \(163.7\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,302$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $266,941$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.16 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{315,966.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.1)}}\) (asimptote \(315,966.1\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,733$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(93.7 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,603.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 98.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,603.4\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $43,885$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $76,005$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(638 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,002.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 131.7)}}\) (asimptote \(105,002.2\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $384$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(6.96 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{678.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 113.6)}}\) (asimptote \(678.2\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20,322$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $226,100$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(5.87 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{205,877.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(205,877.4\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,613$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.69 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,147.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,147.6\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,000$ on 2020-07-26