Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $32,813$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(3.27 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,277$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(0.000825 \times 10^{0.055t}\) (doubling rate \(5.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,163.0}{1 + 10^{-0.958 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,163.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,148$ on 2020-07-26

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $291,172$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(3.23 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{355,318.8}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 105.6)}}\) (asimptote \(355,318.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15,700$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.92 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,818.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 114.1)}}\) (asimptote \(19,818.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,259$ on 2020-07-26

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $110,032$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(418 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{138,041.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 124.5)}}\) (asimptote \(138,041.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,362$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(13.5 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,020.2}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 120.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,020.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,453$ on 2020-07-26

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $63,773$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(2.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{64,671.5}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 106.7)}}\) (asimptote \(64,671.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $433$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(52.9 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{409.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(409.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,967$ on 2020-07-26

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $39,131$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,340.0}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 121.1)}}\) (asimptote \(47,340.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $140$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(2.54 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{163.7}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 106.9)}}\) (asimptote \(163.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,302$ on 2020-07-26

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $266,941$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.16 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{315,966.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.1)}}\) (asimptote \(315,966.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,733$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(93.7 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,603.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 98.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,603.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43,885$ on 2020-07-26

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $76,005$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(638 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,002.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 131.7)}}\) (asimptote \(105,002.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $384$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(6.96 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{678.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 113.6)}}\) (asimptote \(678.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,322$ on 2020-07-26

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $226,100$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(5.87 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{205,877.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(205,877.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,613$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.69 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,147.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,147.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,000$ on 2020-07-26

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Qatar recovered 91%
Turkey recovered 86%
Pakistan recovered 73%
United Arab Emirates recovered 63%
Afghanistan recovered 52%
Bahrain recovered 42%
Tajikistan recovered 39%
Saudi Arabia recovered 30%
Yemen recovered 30%
Azerbaijan recovered 20%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 14%

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $109,305$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(7.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{109,871.6}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 91.4)}}\) (asimptote \(109,871.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $165$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(7.88 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{185.2}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 86.0)}}\) (asimptote \(185.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,116$ on 2020-07-26

Pakistan⮸

Population $220,892,340$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $273,113$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{296,964.3}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 92.5)}}\) (asimptote \(296,964.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,822$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(354 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,600.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 82.1)}}\) (asimptote \(6,600.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,857$ on 2020-07-26

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $58,913$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(4.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,226.1}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 94.3)}}\) (asimptote \(58,226.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $344$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(70.5 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{322.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 50.9)}}\) (asimptote \(322.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,387$ on 2020-07-26

Afghanistan⮸

Population $38,928,346$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $36,157$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(2.92 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,285.7}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 75.3)}}\) (asimptote \(36,285.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,259$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(43.3 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,740.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,740.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,718$ on 2020-07-26